After a year of dreadful performances, inexplicable decisions and plummeting popularity ratings, senior figures behind the scenes have finally reached an inevitable conclusion: it is time for a change of leader.

Ruben Amorim’s dismissal by Manchester United on Monday means the managerial job at Old Trafford is now as insecure as that of the UK prime minister.

In the last decade there have been five permanent leaders in both roles.

Sir Keir Starmer’s allies concede he starts 2026 in a vulnerable position.

But they argue that MPs – like some football fans – have become too accustomed to changing leaders.

This year, the prime minister says, will be when the government “turns the corner” and voters start to feel better off.

There is frustration within Downing Street at the slow pace of passing parliamentary legislation but ministers believe new laws due to kick in this year will start to deliver tangible change.

Labour’s plan to turn things around is inspired by other centre-left parties in Norway, Australia and the Netherlands, which managed to hold off threats from insurgent right-wing opponents by focusing on bread-and-butter issues like the cost of living.

This morning Starmer tried to highlight a freeze in some rail fares, energy bill subsidies and childcare support that he hopes voters will feel the benefit of this year.

Those close to the prime minister believe the next election, which they insist will be in 2029, will be decided by whether voters feel better off, whether public services have improved, and whether people feel safer in their communities.

On these points there is little disagreement among Labour MPs, but there is little confidence that Starmer has the capability to deliver and communicate the change he desires to see.

“What is fundamentally going to change?” one senior Labour MP told ITV News. “The direction of policy, personnel or how he will work?

“Because if it’s none of the above, then it’s not really a reset. It’s a bit like saying I’m doing dry January but still having gin.”

This year will see the prime minister attempt to overhaul his communication strategy with more longform interviews, more time allocated for social media ‘influencers’ and less focus on traditional broadcast and print journalists.

The first sign of that was a 40-minute BBC interview last weekend.

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Despite its length, it left some senior figures in Labour scratching their heads about what message the prime minister was trying to get across.

Since November’s budget, speculation about Starmer’s future has quietened but not gone away.

The next test is the May elections in Wales, Scotland and English regions.

Reform UK plan to spend big on their campaign in the hope they can turn their consistent polling lead into a devastating blow for Labour.

One senior Labour figure told ITV News that leadership changes rarely happen around big, set-piece events.

Instead, they predicted any challenge would be more likely to arise after an unforeseen event.

If a vacancy for the top job does arise this year, there will be no shortage of candidates willing to take on a role with little job security.