One Nation’s skyrocketing support could see the right-wing minor party pick up as many as 34 seats and officially become the main opposition party if an election were held today, a leading pollster says.

Modelling last year by DemosAU, based on a survey of 6928 voters between October 5 and November 11, estimated One Nation could win 12 seats if an election were held then, overtaking the Nationals to become the third biggest party.

One Nation was behind but could win in another six marginal seats, the analysis found.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson. Picture: Martin Ollman/NewsWire

DemosAU’s MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) model was based on a primary vote for One Nation of 17 per cent.

One Nation’s primary vote has soared even further since then, amid widespread dissatisfaction with the response to the December 14 Bondi terror attack by the government and opposition.

On Monday, a shock Newspoll put One Nation overtaking the Coalition with a primary vote of 22 per cent — the first time in Australia’s history that a minor party has polled higher than one of the majors.

An earlier DemosAU poll, published on January 8, put One Nation and the Coalition tied on a primary vote of 23 per cent, with Labor on 29 per cent — a swing of 16.6 per cent to One Nation since the election.

Last week, the Coalition was rocked by a second split in less than a year with the Nationals walking away from the “untenable” alliance amid a row over Labor’s hate speech laws.

DemosAU modelling last year suggested One Nation could pick up 12 seats. Picture: Supplied

George Hasanakos, DemosAU head of research, said in addition to the 18 seats where One Nation was either ahead or narrowly behind based on the October-November model, a primary vote of 22-23 per cent could put another 16 seats in play

“There were another 16 where they were trailing within 5 percentage points of winning, and they could definitely be in the race now,” he said.

“In a nutshell in terms of One Nation seat gains, they start from rural and regional Australia, especially Queensland and to some extent northern NSW. As their vote grows they start becoming more competitive in regional and rural Australia.”

Mr Hasanakos cautioned that “the fly in the ointment” was Labor preferencing against One Nation and favouring the Coalition.

“It’s not a 100 per cent flow, it never is,” he said.

“One Nation, if they have a modest primary vote against the Coalition, they could win, then after that they could, in a bad year for the Coalition and a good year for Labor, have enough seats to become the opposition. But they need the stars to be in alignment.”

DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos. Picture: Supplied

Mr Hasanakos said the key for One Nation would be to start winning seats in outer metropolitan areas.

“These are seats the Coalition have aimed for but haven’t quite got them in the past,” he said.

He cited electorates including the outer Brisbane seat of Blair in Queensland — held by Labor’s Shayne Neumann — which takes in Ipswich and was unsuccessfully contested by Ms Hanson at the 1998 election after her seat of Oxley was split.

Other targets could be Whitlam in NSW’s southern Illawarra and the Southern Highlands, a largely working-class seat held by Labor’s Carol Berry, and Hawke on the lip of urban Melbourne, held by Labor’s Sam Rae.

“If they can start picking those seats up, not only do they have a good chance to be larger than the Coalition, they’re starting to take seats off Labor,” Mr Hasanakos said.

“One Nation could be in a position to be the largest non-Labor party, and if Labor loses its majority potentially form a government.”

Colin Boyce, Michelle Landry and Scott Buchholz. Picture: Supplied

According to DemosAU’s MRP model last year, One Nation would win Capricornia, Flynn and Wright in Queensland, held by Nationals Michelle Landry and Colin Boyce and Liberal Scott Buchholz respectively.

One Nation would also be likely to pick up the Nationals’ seats of Hinkler and Wide Bay in Queensland — held by David Batt and Llew O’Brien — and Lyne, Parkes and Riverina in NSW, held by Alison Penfold, Jamie Chaffey and Michael McCormack.

David Batt, Alison Penfold, Jamie Chaffey, Llew O’Brien and Michael McCormack. Picture: Supplied

Marginal seats which were too close to call but where One Nation was ahead included Calare in NSW — held by former National turned independent Andrew Gee — Liberal leadership hopeful Andrew Hastie’s WA seat of Canning, Grey in South Australia, held by Liberal Tom Venning, and Groom in Queensland, held by Liberal Garth Hamilton.

Andrew Hastie, Tom Venning, Garth Hamilton and Andrew Gee. Picture: Supplied

One Nation was behind but could win in another six marginal seats — including Nationals leader David Littleproud’s enormous outback Queensland electorate of Maranoa and Andrew Willcox’s Mackay seat of Dawson.

The Queensland seats of Forde, held by Labor’s Rowan Holzberger, and Longman, held by Liberal Terry Young, were also within striking distance of One Nation, as were former Liberal Senator Ben Small’s southwest WA seat of Forrest and Hunter in NSW, held Labor’s Dan Repacholi.

Andrew Willcox, Rowan Holzberger, Terry Young, David Littleproud, Ben Small and Dan Repacholi. Picture: Supplied

Mr Hasanakos cautioned that two years until the next federal election was a long time in politics.

DemosAU will be running an updated MRP analysis in coming months.

But he said it was striking that 42 per cent of respondents had a favourable opinion of Ms Hanson and 40 per cent had a favourable opinion of One Nation.

“At the moment they’re only polling at best in the mid-20s primary vote,” he said.

“Can they get it in the 30s? Yes, but it’s not a lay down misère. I’ll be sanguine about it and say yes, it is possible [for One Nation to become the main opposition party]. What we’re seeing is a group of largely Coalition voters … saying this is the strongest conservative option for us.”

DemosAU’s MRP poll last year showed one in five 2025 Coalition voters had switched to One Nation. The January 8 poll, although with a smaller sample of 1027 voters, showed that figure had risen to nearly one in three.

The House of Representatives at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: Martin Ollman/NewsWire

Among 2025 Labor voters, just over one in 10 (11 per cent) had switched support for One Nation.

Mr Hasanakos said the shift to One Nation was strongest among over-55s, non-university degree holders and rural/regional voters.

Ms Hanson, however, now faces “the challenge of anybody else who is in her shoes as a leader of a minor party [trying to become a] party of government”.

“Generally minor parties are protest parties,” Mr Hasanakos said.

“It’s one thing to try get your vote up to 10 per cent, it’s another to get it up to 30-40 per cent and get people’s preferences and that sort of thing. There’s a reason why people in Labor and the Coalition act differently to minor parties — they have to get people on board. It’s harder to keep a voting bloc of 30-40 per cent together.”

Monday’s Newspoll, which surveyed 1224 voters between Monday and Thursday last week, found the Coalition’s primary vote had dropped three points to a record low of 21 per cent, while Labor fell four points to 32 per cent.

Opposition leader Sussan Ley. Picture: Martin Ollman/NewsWire

The combined primary vote for the Coalition is now a record low of 53 per cent, with 47 per cent of Australians now backing One Nation, the Greens, independents and other minor parties.

Labor’s two-party preferred lead over the Coalition has fallen back to 55-45, mirroring the results of last May’s election.

In its January 8 poll, DemosAU gave the two-party-preferred lead to Labor of 52-48 against the Coalition — but its analysis suggested Labor and One Nation would be tied at 50-50 in a two-party-preferred match-up.

This is because Coalition preference flows to One Nation are stronger than One Nation preference flows to the Coalition, according to Mr Hasanakos.

He said earlier this month that Australia “is now on the cusp of following several European countries where a far-right populist party is now challenging for government in the polls”.

“It’s not that shocking when you see other polls, for example, in the United Kingdom, showing a Reform Party lead over a first-term UK Labour government,” he said.

One Nation has overtaken the Coalition in Newspoll. Picture: Glenn Hampson

A Freshwater poll, published in the Herald Sun on Wednesday, showed concerns over immigration and crime were fuelling the surge in support for the minor party.

Cost and standard of living remained on top, picked by 66 per cent of voters the most important issue for the federal government to focus on, followed by housing and accommodation on 38 per cent.

But nearly one third were concerned about crime and social order, while 27 per cent were concerned by immigration and asylum, according to the poll of 1050 voters.

Around two-thirds of voters said Australia’s current immigration levels are too high.

That poll put One Nation’s primary vote at 19 per cent, up 13 points since the May 2025 federal election, while Senator Hanson had a net favourability rating of plus 6 per cent, compared with minus 9 per cent for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and minus 5 per cent for Opposition leader Sussan Ley.

Ms Hanson wears a burqa on the floor of the Senate for the second time in her career. Picture: Supplied

“We’ve definitely seen an increase generally in the rise of immigration as an issue and we also see crime quite high on the issue agenda,” Freshwater Strategy head of research Jordan Meyers told the Herald Sun.

“These really are two of the key issues that One Nation have focused on historically and Pauline Hanson’s been very active post events in Bondi in December last year, so that’s definitely led to a boost in their support as a party.”

Speaking about the stunning Newspoll result on Monday, Senator Hanson declared she was ready to fight for a future as an alternative government.